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The Dow closed just 186 points away from hitting an all-time high. After a shortened trading day in advance of Friday’s July Fourth holiday, the Dow closed higher by 344 points, or 0.77%. The broader S&P 500 rose 0.83% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.02%. Please bear with us as we address this and restore your personalized lists.

Canada and US resume trade talks after tech tax plan suspension

Traders now expect just a 4.7% chance the Fed cuts rates in July, down from a 23.8% chance yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. With the trade war back in focus this week, investors are wondering Trump will once again ease his toughest tariff talk and avoid roiling stocks. Shares of Datadog climbed 9% in Wednesday’s after-hours session after the stock was announced as the newest addition to the S&P 500.

Is Trump’s tariff strategy moving toward diplomacy?

Some Fed officials in recent weeks had signaled an openness to cutting rates in July. The labor market continues to prove resilient, which gives the Fed more time to hold rates steady and focus on how inflation is developing. The Bureau of Labor statistics reported Thursday that the economy added 147,000 jobs last month, beating out expectations. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected an increase of 110,000 jobs. “META’s business model was #1 in many labor productivity metrics top free forex charting software for 2024 in FY24. For example, META reported the highest free cash flow per full time employee for FY24 and the 3rd highest Rev/FTE for FY24,” the note said. Thursday was a shortened trading session, with the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq closing at 1 p.m.

Why did President Trump extend the tariff deadline?

US stock market steadied Tuesday as Trump’s tariff deadline delay gave investors hope for new global trade deals. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures showed modest movement after Trump extended the July 9 tariff start date to August 1, offering trading partners more time to negotiate. Countries like South Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia now have breathing space to respond. While markets remain cautious, the delay sparked optimism that Trump’s firm-yet-flexible stance may open the door for diplomatic progress.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. That’s above the Dow Jones forecast from economists for 110,000 and the upwardly revised 144,000 in May. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.1%, while economists had projected an increase to 4.3%.

Dow Jones Stocks List (by Dollar Volume)

The inclusion of a company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average does not depend on defined criteria. Instead, an independent Wall Street Journal commission decides whether a share is to be included or excluded. There are no fixed times for reviewing the composition of the index, since changes are only made by the commission as and when they are needed. Like the Swiss Market Index (SMI), the Dow Jones is a price index. The shares included in it are weighted according to price; the index level represents the average of the shares included in it.

Martin upgraded Meta Platforms to hold from underperform, saying in a note to clients that the Facebook-parent company has better labor productivity than eight other Big Tech and media peers that she covers. Meanwhile, the average duration of unemployment rose and the share of unemployed workers who have been out of a job for 27 weeks or longer edged closer to a three-year high. Stocks had jumped higher in the morning after new data showed the economy added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding expectations.

• Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in an email that the June jobs report signals rate cuts in July are likely off the table.
• The stock will replace Juniper Networks, which was acquired by Hewlett Packard Enterprise on July 2.
• “In contrast, most global markets have posted gains of 15% to 20%. Among major indices, only a few have underperformed the S&P, placing it well below the global average.”
• “We will see a real tariff impact for a lot of businesses, but the market is going to digest that without too much trouble,” he also said.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closed the week in the green. Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro ripped into Apple’s reliance on China on Monday. Leaving the country might be harder than Trump thinks, analysts say.

• “META’s business model was #1 in many labor productivity metrics in FY24. For example, META reported the highest free cash flow per full time employee for FY24 and the 3rd highest Rev/FTE for FY24,” the note said.
• Wedbush analyst Dan Ives hiked his price target on cloud software maker Datadog to $170 from $140 after the company’s announced inclusion into the S&P 500 index.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up 1.7% and 1.6% week to date, respectively, while the Dow posted a 2.3% gain for the period.
• The bill is now headed for a final vote after the Republican-controlled House advanced the legislation Thursday.
• U.S. futures were little moved following a vote by the House of Representatives to advance U.S.

Fed’s Bowman supports a rate cut ‘as soon’ as July, citing reduced inflation risks

The Russell 2000 rose 0.6% in Thursday morning trading, pulling it into positive territory on the year. On Tuesday, Burford said that the Senate Parliamentarian had ruled that proposed tax provisions relating to litigation finance included in the Senate’s draft of the budget reconciliation bill “are not eligible for inclusion in the bill.” The Treasury Secretary also downplayed the idea that the tariffs are hurting the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, after President Donald Trump announced the U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement Wednesday, investors eagerly awaited any potential future deal announcements as the president’s early July deadline on his 90-day tariff pause approaches next week. While the market trading at all-time high levels leaves it open to downside, especially if Trump chooses to be “really tough” in negotiations, Ellerbroek believes the market is ultimately taking a more optimistic view. “The June jobs report is like a summer blockbuster — plenty of action and a surprise twist. Despite tariffs, DC drama and global headwinds, the US labor market just pulled off a better-than-expected performance,” Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, said in an email. S3 noted that while the &P 500 has steadily recovered to new all-time highs, the index is only 6% higher for the year through Wednesday.

However, Martin stayed at just a hold rating because labor productivity appears to be slowing at the same other spending, like capital expenditures and the investments in Scale AI, are growing. By contrast, Centene hit a new 52-week low in the session, with shares trading at lows not seen since March 2017. All three major U.S. averages closed out the week in positive territory. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were up 1.7% and 1.6% week to date, respectively, while the Dow posted a 2.3% gain for the period. “We will see a real tariff impact for a lot of businesses, but the market is going to digest that without too much trouble,” he also said.

Stocks open higher

“Despite a 25% selloff earlier in the year followed by recovery, short interest in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq has continued to rise steadily this year,” the researchers said. “Why buy META now, when META admits they are in front of a 2-3 year investment cycle with unknowable returns on invested capital,” the note said. “I’ve made my career on listening to the market, not Wall Street economists, so I’m going to stick with what the market’s telling me,” he added. Investors are also following along the progress on Trump’s tax megabill, which finally passed the Senate Tuesday and has since returned to the House. The bill is now headed for a final vote after the Republican-controlled House advanced the legislation Thursday.